Is Occupy Wall Street Too Big to Fail ?

Occupy Wall Street: Too Big to Fail?
NEWS JENNIFER MERRITT OCTOBER 18, 2011


A protester holds a sign outside St. Paul's Cathedral in London Oct. 16 [Getty Images]

It has raised $300,000 in donations, attracted the attention of celebrities — from the predictable (Michael Moore) to the not-so-predictable (Kanye West) — and even has its own app. But is the Occupy Wall Street movement something to be taken seriously?

After all, it admittedly lacks leadership, a clear message, and a single list of demands for the federal government or Corporate America. Yet the scale of mobilization alone — from New York to Des Moines, London, the Philippines and beyond — is enough for it to be taken seriously, experts say.

Occupy Wall Street's Signs of Protest

“When you get dozens of cities and thousands and thousands of people for an issue, it really points to the fact that there is a sizable portion of people who think this is a social problem,” says Thomas Ratliff, an assistant professor of political science at Tennessee Technological University in Cookeville, Tenn.

And there are signs that suggest Occupy Wall Street, which just had its one-month anniversary, has legs. Here are three of them, plus one surprising element that could put a stop to the movement entirely.

1. It’s not just a fad. “Looking over 2006 to 2009 there were dozens of protests targeting Wall Street and corporate excess before the movement actually got its name,” says Ratliff, who has spent years researching social protests and movement mobilization. “The idea that it’s spontaneous is wrong.”

2. Its lack of leadership isn’t necessarily a bad thing. “On the one hand, it would be very useful if they had a spokesperson, but the downside of that is, particularly if it’s a politician, they co-opt it for their own purposes, which is definitely something we saw happen with the Tea Party movement,” says Deana Rohlinger, associate professor of sociology at Florida State University in Tallahassee, Fla. “It’s much less likely here. One of the things the Tea Party movement had going for it, but was also a problem, was that it had an election coming up, so there were powerful interests trying to take advantage of its message. The Occupy moment is not in that same kind of political moment.”

3. It’s largely peaceful, which suggests the movement may stick around for a while. Chai Ling, a student commander-in-chief during the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising and author of a new book about the event, A Heart for Freedom, has visited with the Occupy movement in Boston, where she lives. While she believes the protesters' messages have been mixed—slogans like “Eat the rich” and “Tax the rich” are “derisive, violent and full of envy and hatred,” she says—she’s been impressed with the sense of order. “When they try to speak they want to make sure everyone else can hear it," she says. "One person speaks and the rest of the people would just repeat what the person spoke. It’s interesting [to see] a democracy at work in a much more profound way.”

In fact, all the experts interviewed agree that turning violent is the quickest way to destroy the movement’s progress. “If you look back to the anti-war movement of the '60s, as they became more confrontational and violent, public opinion of that movement decreased,” Ratliff says.

Celebrities Arrested for a Cause

The other factor that could bring demonstrations to a halt? Weather.

As temps begin to dip in New York—where Occupy originated—and elsewhere around the world, the movement's momentum could be compromised. “They’re already talking about, ‘How do you winterize camps?” Rohling notes. “This energy is really exciting, but people will ultimately want to see that their demands are being heard and responded to and that will be particularly important as it gets really cold out.” It’s a factor Ratliff has seen play out in his research. “Generally, you have larger mobilization in August, September, October, maybe early November, and then in the winter you have a huge drop,” he says. “If you’re talking about something where people persist even into the winter, then you’re getting pretty serious.”

Still, even if Old Man Winter comes to oppressively occupy Wall Street, it won’t mean the movement was all for naught. Says Rohlinger, “Regardless of whether any of these movements have lasting success, we’ll look back and see this as a really important political moment in which people expressed opinions and hopefully regained some voice in our political system.”
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